An INAR(1) negative multinomial regression model for longitudinal count data

This paper discusses a regression model for the analysis of longitudinal count data observed in a panel study. An integer-valued first-order autoregressive INAR(1)] Poisson process is adapted to represent time-dependent correlations among the counts. By combining the INAR(1)-representation with a random effects approach, a new negative multinomial distribution is derived that includes the bivariate negative binomial distribution proposed by Edwards and Gurland (1961) and Subrahmaniam (1966) as a special case. A detailed analysis of the relationship between personality factors and daily emotion experiences illustrates the approach.This research was partially supported by NSF grant SBR-9409531. The author is grateful to Ulrich Schimmack and Ed Diener for providing the data set used in the application section and for helpful comments on this research.