| Abstract: | Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a widely used and accepted method for improving decision making performance across a range of diagnostic settings. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate how ROC analysis can be used to improve the quality of decisions made routinely in a policing context. To begin, I discuss the general principles underlying the ROC approach and demonstrate how one can conduct the analysis. Several practical applications of ROC analysis are then presented by drawing on a number of policing tasks where the procedure has been used already (bite mark identification and linking serial crimes) or where it could be used in the future (statement validity assessment and determining the veracity of suicide notes). I conclude by considering briefly some of the potential difficulties that may be encountered when using ROC analysis in the policing context and offer some possible solutions to these problems. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
