囚徒困境决策中分离效应验证性与机制研究

Savage于1954年提出"确定事件原则"这一概念,Tversky和Slafir(1992)通过实验发现,人们在不确定条件下的决策过程中,会出现违背确定事件原则的现象,并把这种现象称为"分离效应"。尽管已经有很多对于二次赌博中分离效应的机制研究并产生很多分歧,但对于囚徒困境范式中是否存在分离效应以及其机制并没有一致的结果。本文对囚徒困境中的分离效应进行了验证性实验,虽然整体结果上与Shafir与Tversky(1992)的结论相吻合,但被试专业背景对结果有显著效应。同时,按照Lambdin和Burdsal(2007)对分离效应的操作定义,结果发现分离效应没有出现,文章对其原因进行了讨论。

The Verification and Mechanism Experiments on Disjunction Effect in Prisoner's Dilemma

Tversky and Shafir（1992） found that people would violate the sure-thing principle in decision makings under uncertainty.They called it ＂the disjunction effect＂.Although there were conflicts in previous research of disjunction effects in the two-step gamble paradigm,it was not certain whether the disjunction effect existed in the prisoner＇s dilemma paradigm. This research replicated the experiment and the re- sult was virtually equivalent to Shafir and Tversky. However,the professional background of subjects had a significant effect.Also,when using the Lambdin and Burdsal methods,the result was different and no disjunction effect was found.