贝叶斯推理的三重加工心智模型

自二十世纪60年代Edwards首次用实验研究人类推理是否遵循贝叶斯规则以来,国内外贝叶斯推理研究取得了长足的发展,但也出现了一些困境:对影响贝叶斯推理的客体因素和主体因素研究未成体系,解释理论莫衷一是。未来的研究应该重新审视客体与主体的关系,系统整合和多角度分析影响贝叶斯推理的因素,尝试以三重加工心智模型解释人类贝叶斯推理行为,并对以往的解释理论进行融合,从而更好地揭示人类不确定性决策的本质。

Tripartite Model of Mind on Bayesian Reasoning

Since Edwards first used experiments to study whether human reasoning followed Bayesian rules in the 1960s,research on Bayesian reasoning has made great progress at home and abroad.However,there are some dilemmas.For example,there is no systematic research on the object factors and the subject factors that affect Bayesian reasoning,and there is no agreement on the interpretation theory.In order to better reveal the nature of human’s uncertain decision making,future research should re-examine the relationship between object factors and subject factors,analysis the influential factors from multiple perspectives,try to explain human Bayesian reasoning in terms of Tripartite Model of Mind,integrate explanatory theories.