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Power Politics and the Balance of Risk: Hypotheses on Great Power Intervention in the Periphery
Authors:Jeffrey W Taliaferro
Institution:Department of Political Science, Tufts University
Abstract:Great powers frequently initiate risky diplomatic and military interventions in the periphery—regions that do not directly threaten the security of a great power's homeland. Such risky interventions are driven by leaders' aversion to losses in their state's relative power, international status, or prestige. These leaders often persist in such courses of action even when they incur mounting political, economic, and military costs. More surprisingly, they undertake risky strategies toward other great powers in an effort to continue these failing interventions. Hypotheses concerning such interventions are derived from the prospect theory and defensive realist literatures.
Keywords:balance-of-risk theory  escalation of commitment  loss aversion  expectation levels  prospect theory  defensive realism  periphery
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