A two-factor model for predicting when a couple will divorce: exploratory analyses using 14-year longitudinal data |
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Authors: | Gottman John Mordechai Levenson Robert Wayne |
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Institution: | Institute for Personality Research, Department of Psychology, University of California, USA. jgottman@gottman.com |
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Abstract: | This article examines 14-year longitudinal data and attempts to create a post hoc model that uses Time-1 data to "predict" the length of time the marriage will last. The sample consists of the 21 couples (of 79 studied) who divorced over a 14-year period. A two-factor model is proposed. One factor is the amount of unregulated volatile positive and negative affect in the marriage, and this factor predicts a short marriage length for the divorcing couples. A second factor is called "neutral affective style," and this factor predicts a long marriage length for the divorcing couples. This model is compared to a Time-1 model of ailing marriage in which Time-1 marital satisfaction is used to predict the timing of divorce. |
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