Familiarity Bias and Belief Reversal in Relative Likelihood Judgment

People are often called on to make an assessment of the relative likelihood of events (e.g., which of two investments is more likely to outperform the market?) and their complements (which of the two investments is more likely to perform no better than the market?). Probability theory assumes that belief orderings over events and their complements should mirror each other (i.e., P(A) >/= P(B) iff P (not-A)