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Trying to Resolve the Two-Envelope Problem
Authors:Email author" target="_blank">Casper?J?AlbersEmail author  Barteld?P?Kooi  Willem?Schaafsma
Institution:(1) Mathematics & Natural Science, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700, AV, Groningen, The Netherlands
Abstract:After explaining the well-known two-envelope lsquoparadoxrsquo by indicating the fallacy involved, we consider the two-envelope lsquoproblemrsquo of evaluating the lsquofactualrsquo information provided to us in the form of the value contained by the envelope chosen first. We try to provide a synthesis of contributions from economy, psychology, logic, probability theory (in the form of Bayesian statistics), mathematical statistics (in the form of a decision-theoretic approach) and game theory. We conclude that the two-envelope problem does not allow a satisfactory solution. An interpretation is made for statistical science at large.
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