Optimal predictions in everyday cognition |
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Authors: | Griffiths Thomas L Tenenbaum Joshua B |
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Affiliation: | Department of Cognitive and Linguistic Sciences, Brown University, RI 02912, USA. tom_griffiths@brown.edu |
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Abstract: | Human perception and memory are often explained as optimal statistical inferences that are informed by accurate prior probabilities. In contrast, cognitive judgments are usually viewed as following error-prone heuristics that are insensitive to priors. We examined the optimality of human cognition in a more realistic context than typical laboratory studies, asking people to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday phenomena such as human life spans and the box-office take of movies. Our results suggest that everyday cognitive judgments follow the same optimal statistical principles as perception and memory, and reveal a close correspondence between people's implicit probabilistic models and the statistics of the world. |
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