Excessive confidence in visually-based estimates |
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Authors: | Eduardo B. Andrade |
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Affiliation: | University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1900, United States |
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Abstract: | People exhibit excessive confidence in visually-based estimates, which in turn biases decision making. Three experiments support this assertion. Experiment 1 shows a strong impact of presentation format on estimation of proportions. Experiment 2 shows that people rely on these erroneous estimates to make incentive-compatible decisions even when objective information can be easily obtained. Experiment 3 demonstrates that the biased decisions disappear when confidence in visually-based estimates is called into question by the perceived complexity of the stimulus. |
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Keywords: | Overconfidence Risk perception Risk taking Visual perception Probability estimates Gambling Global processing Numerosity Likelihood judgment |
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