Consequences for road traffic fatalities of the reduction in flying following September 11, 2001 |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Sociology, 323 Uris Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States;2. Department of Sociology Widang, Hall #502, Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 120-749, South Korea;1. University of Adelaide, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia;2. Institute of Transport Studies, Monash University, Wellington Road, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia;3. Amy Gillett Foundation, 181 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, Vic 3182, Australia;4. Queensland University of Technology, 130 Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, Qld 4059, Australia;1. Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Belgium;2. Department of Psychiatry and Medical Psychology, Ghent University and University Hospital (UZ Brussel), Department of Psychiatry, Brussels, Belgium;1. Washington State Department of Health, PO Box 47812, Olympia, WA 98504-7812, USA;2. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA;3. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA |
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| Abstract: | Gigerenzer Gigerenzer, G. (2004). Dread risk, September 11, and fatal traffic accidents. Psychological Science, 15, 286–287] argued that the increased fear of flying in the U.S. after September 11 resulted in a partial shift from flying to driving on rural interstate highways, with a consequent increase of 353 road traffic fatalities for October through December 2001. We reevaluated the consequences of September 11 by utilizing the trends in road traffic fatalities from 2000 to 2001 for January through August. We also examined which road types and traffic participants contributed most to the increased road fatalities. We conclude that (1) the partial modal shift after September 11 resulted in 1018 additional road fatalities for the three months in question, which is substantially more than estimated by Gigerenzer, (2) the major part of the increased toll occurred on local roads, arguing against a simple modal shift from flying to driving to the same destinations, (3) driver fatalities did not increase more than in proportion to passenger fatalities, and (4) pedestrians and bicyclists bore a disproportionate share of the increased fatalities. |
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