决策评估中的结果偏差

结果偏差又称结果效应,它是发生在决策评估中的一种偏差式判断,即当决策结果与决策质量不存在实质性联系时,评估者仍根据结果信息评估决策质量.针对这一判断谬误的产生根源,研究者们提出了认知解释和申辩模型.结果偏差的影响因素主要包括动机、情境因素和评估手段等.基于先前研究存在的问题和不足,今后的研究应着眼于改进研究手段,理清与其他现象的关系并提出有效的应对策略.

Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation

Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator base his evaluation for decision quality on the outcome of decision rather than on the appropriateness of decision. That is, when an outcome is good (bad), evaluator tends to evaluate the decision positively (negatively) regardless of the actual appropriateness of the decision resulting in that outcome. As for now, researchers have provided two main underlying causes for outcome bias, cognitive explanations and justification model. Evidences show outcome bias could be influenced by some factors, such as motive, context information, and evaluation measure. Instead of laboratory experiments, further researches are expected to be operated in real settings. In addition, further researches should explore how to effectively mitigate outcome bias and make a distinction with other biases in behavioral decision making.