Analyst judgment: The efficient market hypothesis versus a psychological theory of human judgment |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Emergency Medicine and Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA;2. Université Paris I–Panthéon Sorbonne, Paris, France;1. Rice University, Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business, Houston, TX 77005, United States;2. Cornell University, Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management, Ithaca, NY 14853-6201, United States;1. Department of Electrical Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Republic of Korea;2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Republic of Korea;3. Korea Expressway Corporation Research Institute, 77, Hyeoksin 8-ro, Gimcheon-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Republic of Korea |
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| Abstract: | This paper considers the psychological processes used by financial analysts in making earnings forecasts by pitting two models against each other: the efficient market hypothesis, an economic model which asserts that the stock market virtually instantaneously and perfectly assimilates all available investment information; and personal construct theory, a psychological model of human judgment which emphasizes the fact that human decision making is based on formal and informal models of the phenomenon under consideration. Path models derived from personal construct theory fit data for 1963 gathered by Cragg and Malkiel and data for 1979–1983 gathered for this study. The efficient market hypothesis was not supported in any test on either data set. |
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