Heuristics and biases in diagnostic reasoning: II. Congruence,information, and certainty

Six experiments were carried out to examine possible heuristics and biases in the evaluation of yes-or-no questions for the purpose of hypothesis testing. In some experiments, the prior probability of the hypotheses and the conditional probabilities of the answers given each hypothesis were elicited from the subjects; in other experiments, they were provided. We found the following biases (systematic departures from a normative model), and interviews and justifications suggested that each was the result of a corresponding heuristic: Congruence bias. Subjects overvalued questions that have a high probability of a positive result given the most likely hypothesis. This bias was apparently reduced when alternative hypotheses or probabilities of negative results are explicitly stated. Information bias. Subjects evaluated questions as worth asking even when there is no answer that can change the hypothesis that will be accepted as a basis for action. Certainty bias. Subjects overvalued questions that have the potential to establish, or rule out, one or more hypotheses with 100% probability. These heuristics are explained in terms of the idea that people fail to consider certain arguments against the use of questions that seem initially worth asking, specifically, that a question may not distinguish likely hypotheses or that no answer can change the hypothesis accepted as a basis for action.