基于不对称区间估计的有调节的中介模型检验

有调节的中介模型是中介过程受到调节变量影响的模型。评介了基于Bootstrap不对称置信区间和贝叶斯不对称可靠区间进行有调节的中介模型检验的3种方法, 包括亚组分析法、差异分析法和系数乘积法。模拟研究发现, 偏差校正的百分位Bootstrap置信区间和无先验信息的贝叶斯可靠区间在有调节的中介模型检验中表现相当, 都优于百分位Bootstrap置信区间的表现。建议使用系数乘积法进行第一阶段或第二阶段被调节的中介模型检验, 使用差异分析法进行两阶段被调节的中介模型检验, 并用一个实际例子演示如何用不对称区间估计检验有调节的中介模型。随后评述了3种有调节的中介模型检验方法在国内心理学的应用现状, 并展望了检验的拓展方向。

Moderated Mediation Model Analysis Based on Asymmetric Interval

Integrating moderation and mediation models has been a popular topic of study in social science methodology. A moderated mediation model is a combination of both moderation and mediation models. When a mediation effect is moderated by a moderator, the effect is termed moderated mediation and the model is a moderated mediation model. There are three common types of moderated mediation models: first-stage moderated mediation, second-stage moderated mediation, and dual-stage moderated mediation. Three methods of testing moderated mediation models are based on the Bootstrap asymmetric confidence interval and the Bayesian asymmetric credible interval. These methods include a subgroup approach, difference approach, and products of coefficients approach. The products of coefficients approach is recommended to analyze first-stage or second-stage moderated mediation models. The difference approach is recommended to analyze dual-stage moderated mediation models. A simulation study found that the Bayesian credible interval without informative prior yielded higher power than the Bootstrap percentile confidence interval, and comparable power to the Bootstrap bias-corrected confidence interval. In the present study, we used an example to illustrate how to conduct the proposed procedure by using MPLUS and WinBUGS software. MPLUS and WinBUGS programs are provided in the appendix to facilitate the implementation of the Bootstrap method to analyze moderated mediation effects. The programs can be managed easily by empirical researchers. To explore the present situation and problems of using three moderated mediation analysis methods in psychological researches in China, this article reviewed 12 studies published in Chinese psychological journals, retrieved from the CNKI database, since 2009 to 2014.