过分自信的进化模型

过分自信有狭义和广义之分, 狭义的过分自信是指人们对自身绝对水平的高估, 使得对自己的评价优于实际水平, 广义的过分自信是一种非理性的过于优化的估计, 还包括对自身相对水平的高估。基于进化心理学理论和生态理性假设提出的进化模型认为, 过分自信是一种快速启发式认知策略, 在适应和生存中具有优势, 是进化选择的结果。根据对个体知觉偏差的不同假设, 进化模型分为二项式模型和正态模型, 都得出了一致的研究结论。与过分自信的自我提升理论、权重差异理论和信息差异理论相比较, 进化模型具有许多优点, 但也存在一些不足, 需要进一步对其进行探讨和检验。

The Evolution Model of Overconfidence

Narrow sense of overconfidence means people believe they are better than their actual selves, and generalized overconfidence means the mis-calibration in judgment and decision-making. Based on the theory of evolutionary psychology and ecological rational hypothesis, Johnson and Fowler (2011) put forward the evolution model of overconfidence. They hold overconfidence, as a rapid heuristic cognitive strategy and the result of evolutionary selection, owes an advantage in the adaptation and survival. According to the different assumptions of individual perceptual bias, evolution model is divided into binomial model and normal model, both of which lead to the consistent conclusions. Compared to the self-enhancement theory, differential weighting theory and the theoretical model of differential information, Evolution model, in spite of many advantages, is still restricted to some deficiencies. Hence, to go beyond those deficiencies, further empirical researches remains to be conducted to test and develop the evolution model.