Cross Validation of Experimental USAF Pilot Training Performance Models

In a recent study, several experimental computerized tests demonstrated utility for supporting United States Air Force (USAF) pilot candidate selection de- cisions and adding to the predictive validity of the Air Force Officer Qualifying Test (AFOQT), the ability measure currently included in the USAF pilot candidate selection process (Carretta, 1989). Pilot candidates with good hand-eye coordination, who make quick and accurate decisions, and who exhibited a cautious risk-taking style were more likely to complete training successfully. The purpose of this study was to cross validate these results to determine their stability. To perform the cross validation, 885 USAF Undergraduate Pilot Training (UPT) students were assigned randomly to two groups (478 of these students also were used in Carretta, 1989). Pilot candidate selection models were developed independently for each group. The "best fitting" regression weights from each group then were applied to subjects in the other group to determine the stability of the regression solutions. In the model development phase, subjects in both groups who had good hand-eye coordination and who made quick and accurate decisions were more likely to complete pilot training successfully. Although there was some reduc- tion in the validity coefficients in the cross-validation phase, the selection models were related significantly to final training outcome in both groups. These results suggest that the experimental pilot candidate selection models are robust enough to be used as adjuncts to operational USAF pilot candidate selection procedures.