确定的不确定性与不确定的确定性——治疗疾病决策与控制传染病决策之差异

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情给人类带来了一场严重的公共卫生危机。人们需要制定抗击疫情的对策。系统地比较了治疗疾病决策与疫情防控决策的制定过程与方式,讨论了这二者在影响决策的因素、决策的内容以及决策的目标上的差别。治疗疾病决策主要是一种事实判断,其确定性与不确定性都是建立在还原论的基础之上;而控制传染病决策基本上是一种价值判断。尽管传染病本身是客观的生物学和医学问题,但是控制传染病方案的制定却不可避免地涉及到许多主观因素。

Determined Uncertainty and Undetermined Certainty:The Difference between Decision Making on Disease:Treatment and Epidemic Prevention

The present outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)causes a crisis of public health in the world.The decision on the epidemic prevention has to be made.This paper analyzes the difference between decision making on disease treatment and epidemic prevention.On the one hand,the decision making on disease treatment is a kind of objective judgement,and the certainty and uncertainty of this judgement is based on reductionism.On the other hand,the decision making on epidemic prevention is a kind of value judgement.Although infection diseases themselves are objective biological and medical issues,the epidemic prevention must involve a number of subjective factors.