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Does adolescent heavier alcohol use predict young adult aggression and delinquency? Parallel analyses from four Australasian cohort studies |
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| Authors: | Jake M Najman PhD FASSA Maria Plotnikova PhD John Horwood BA BSc MSc Edmund Silins PhD David Fergusson BA PhD FRSNZ FNZPS FRACP George C Patton PhD Craig Olsson PhD Delyse M Hutchinson PhD Louisa Degenhardt PhD Robert Tait PhD George J Youssef PhD Rohan Borschmann PhD Carolyn Coffey PhD John W Toumbourou PhD Richard P Mattick PhD |
| Institution: | 1. School of Public Health and School of Social Science, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia;2. Christchurch Health and Development Study, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand;3. National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Australia, Sydney, Australia;4. Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia;5. Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, School of Psychology, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia;6. National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Australia, Sydney, Australia Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, School of Psychology, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia;7. National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Australia, Sydney, Australia Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;8. National Drug Research Institute, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia;9. Faculty of Health, School of Psychology, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia;10. School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia;11. Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia;12. Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, School of Psychology, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia |
| Abstract: | While the association between heavy alcohol consumption and aggression has been well documented, the causal direction of this association, particularly at a population level, is disputed. A number of causal sequences have been proposed. First, that aggression leads to heavy alcohol use. Second, that heavy alcohol use leads to aggression. Third, that the association between alcohol use and aggression is due to confounding by (a) sociodemographic variables or (b) delinquency. We report here data from four Australasian prospective longitudinal studies of adolescents, to assess the temporal sequence of heavy drinking and aggression over the period from adolescence to young adulthood. The four cohort studies provide a total sample of 6,706 persons (Australian Temperament Project, n = 1701; Christchurch Health and Development Study, n = 931; Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy, n = 2437; Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study, n = 1637). We use multinomial logistic regression to determine whether early adolescent aggression predicts subsequent age of onset of heavy episodic drinking (HED), after adjustment for concurrent sociodemographic factors and delinquency. We then consider whether HED predicts subsequent aggression, after adjusting for past aggression, concurrent delinquency, and a range of confounders. There are broadly consistent findings across the four cohort studies. Early aggression strongly predicts subsequent HED. HED predicts later aggression after adjustment for prior aggression and other confounders. Policies that alter population levels of alcohol consumption are likely to impact on levels of aggression in societies where HED linked to aggression is more common. |
| Keywords: | aggression alcohol causal cohort studies delinquency |