贝叶斯推理研究综述

Kahneman 和Tversky在70年代初期发现人们在概率推理中并不遵循数学上的贝叶斯定理,常常由于忽略问题中的基础概率而对稀少事件的条件概率作出夸大的反应。此后心理学家采用文本范式和经验范式对此问题进行了大量的研究,并涌现了一些不同的理论观点,主要有启发法策略论(代表性启发法和可得性启发法)、自然抽样空间假说、频率效应论和抽样加工理论。

REVIEW ON BAYESIAN REASONING RESEARCH

In the early days of the 1970s, Kahneman and Tversky discovered that people do not follow the Bayes theorem and inflate conditional probability judgements of rare events because of neglecting the base rate in the problem. After that, a lot of studies of this issue have been performed using textual paradigm and experiential paradigm and many theories were developed, mainly including heuristics(representativeness and availability), natural sampling space hypotheses, frequency effect, and sampling approach theory.