Explaining the Past in the Geosciences |
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Authors: | Robert John Inkpen |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, Portsmouth University, Buckingham Building, Lion Terrace, Portsmouth, Hampshire, PO1 3HE, UK |
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Abstract: | Abductive reasoning is central to reconstructing the past in the geosciences. This paper outlines the nature of the abductive
method and restates it in Bayesian terms. Evidence plays a key role in this working method and, in particular, traces of the
past are important in this explanatory framework. Traces, whether singularly or as groups, are interpreted within the context
of the event for which they have evidential claims. Traces are not considered as independent entities but rather as inter-related
pieces of information concerning the likelihood of specific events. Exemplification of the use of such traces is provided
by dissecting an example of their use in the environmental reconstruction of mountain climate. |
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Keywords: | Geoscience Bayesian Abduction |
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