Using Estimates of the Output Productivity Ratio (SDp) to Improve the Accuracy and Managerial Acceptance of Utility Analysis Estimates

This study compared nursing supervisors' percentile estimates (15th, 50th, and 85th) of staff nurse performance made in terms of dollar value and two alternative metrics—output (number of patients cared for) and staffing (number of nurses required to staff a unit). Of the three estimation procedures, nursing supervisors were most confident in the accuracy of their output-based estimates and least confident in the accuracy of their dollar value-based estimates. Estimates of the standard deviation of performance as a percentage of mean performance (SDp) ranged from 19% for the staffing-based estimate to 29% for the output-based estimate. Contrary to expectations, dollar value-based SDp estimates were only minimally correlated with staffing- and output-based SDp estimates. I conclude that allowing supervisors to make percentile estimates in terms of familiar metrics has potential value for improving the accuracy and managerial acceptability of utility analysis.