时间距离对于验证性信息加工的影响

研究基于解释水平理论考察时间距离对于验证性信息加工的影响, 即在个体和组织决策情境中, 人们倾向于偏好选择和高估与自身观点和决策相一致的信息, 而不是非一致性信息。通过4个情境决策实验, 研究结果一致表明近期决策会提高信息搜寻和评估中的验证偏差, 而远期决策会降低它们的验证偏差, 知觉到的决策确定性在其中起到部分中介作用(实验1b)。解释水平(实验2)和期许性/可行性表征(实验3)分别在时间距离对验证性信息加工的影响中起到调节作用, 结果依次表明在低解释水平(高可行性-低期许性特征)条件下, 时间距离与验证性信息加工的负相关关系会得到显著增强, 而在高解释水平(高期许性-低可行性特征)条件下, 时间距离与验证性信息加工的负相关关系会得到显著降低。

The Effects of Temporal Distance on Confirmatory Information Processing

The present study investigates the influence of temporal distance on confirmatory information processing. Confirmatory information processing principally refers to a tendency of individuals to search and overestimate information that supports with their decision rather than looking for information conflicts (Fischer, Fischer, Englich, Aydin, & Frey, 2011; Fischer, 2011). According to the theoretical viewpoint of Construal Level Theory (CLT, see Trope & Liberman, 2010), temporal distance or perceived temporal proximity exerts an important discount effect on confirmatory information processing under individual and organizational decision making context. It is hypothesized that low temporal distance will increase confirmatory information processing and high temporal distance will decrease it. This discount effect is moderated by construal level mindset and decision’s desirable and feasible representation. We have conducted three studies and our results have found to support our prediction. In Study 1, we have conducted two one-factor between-subjects experiments in which we manipulated temporal distance (near vs. future) and employed a classic selective exposure paradigm to explore the confirmatory information processing. Fifty college students participate in the experiment 1a and sixty college students join in the experiment 1b. The results have shown that participants in a near-temporal decision scenario strengthen their confirmatory information processing, while participants in a future-temporal scenario reduce their confirmatory information processing. Further, we have found that perceived decision certainty plays a partial mediating effect in the process. In study 2, we have conducted a 2×2 between-subjects experiment to investigate the moderating effect of construal level mindset in which we manipulated temporal distance (near vs. future) and construal level mindset (low vs. high). Ninety undergraduate students from a university in Shanghai participate this experiment. The finding have confirmed the temporal discount effect as study 1 did, and also supports a negative impact of construal level mindset on confirmatory information processing. As expected, the moderating effect is testified as well. The negative relationship between temporal distance and confirmatory information processing is stronger when construal level mindset is lower. And the negative relationship between them is weaker when construal level mindset is higher. In study 3, we have explored the moderating effect of decision desirable/feasible representation on the relationship between temporal distance and confirmatory information processing. We conducted a 2×2 between-subjects experiment to verify the hypothesis. Fifty-eight participants take part in this experiment and are randomly assigned into different treatments. Apart from a main effect of decision representation, the results also exhibits its moderating mechanism that the negative relationship between temporal distance and confirmatory information processing is stronger when the decision scenario is represented as high-feasibility/low-desirability, the negative relationship is much weaker when the decision scenario is represented as high-desirability/low-feasibility. The result is shown to support our hypotheses. Our results support the temporal discount effect of confirmatory information processing which shades some light on a new cognitive mechanism for biased information processing. This research brings an insight to the underlying process in mediating role of perceived decision certainty, which responds to the cognitive economy model of confirmatory information processing. Moreover, the abstract and concrete mental representation primed in both mindset and decision context exert a significant boundary mechanism for this temporal discount effect. The negative effects of temporal distance on confirmatory information processing could vary significantly with different level of abstract representation. Finally, our findings also have some practical implications for managing and reducing confirmation biases in the process of information search and evaluation when making a decision.