Predicting who suffers psychological trauma in the first year after a road accident

This study followed up a cohort (n = 72) of consecutive road accident attendees to hospital for one year, assessing them soon after the accident and 3, 6 and 12 months later with the General Health Questionnaire (28-item version); Impact of Event Scale and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Interview. The aim of the study was to identify demographic, accident and subjective reality variables that could predict who was likely to suffer psychological disorder in the future. The extent of injury was a particular focus for the study. Results showed that at different time periods, using stepwise, multiple regression analyses, between 12 and 77% of variance in trauma measures could be predicted. Severity of injury was a stronger predictor longer after the accident.