“过分自信”的研究及其跨文化差异

“过分自信”是一种偏离校准，是指人们关于一般知识问题的概率判断通常以某种方式偏离校准，这种偏离都偏高。跨文化系列研究表明：面对常识和概率判断问题，集体主义文化成员（如中国人）比个体主义文化成员（如美国人）更过分自信。文章在简要回顾“过分自信”研究的基础上，对“过分自信”的跨文化差异及原因进行了比较详细地介绍，并对“过分自信”跨文化差异研究的进一步发展和实际应用进行讨论。冀对以往的研究做初步的归纳和总结，促进决策领域中跨文化比较方面的研究得到进一步发展

"Overconfidence" and Its Cross-Cultural Variation

Overconfidence refers to that subjects’ average probability judgments exceed the proportions of items they answer correctly over a wide range of conditions. A series of cross-cultural researches indicate that respondents in Asian cultures (e.g., Chinese) are more risk-seeking and more overconfident than respondents in other cultures (e.g., in United States) and that the reciprocal predictions are in total opposition. This paper presents recent researches on overconfidence from traditional and alternative frameworks. The implications for cross-cultural variations in overconfidence were discussed