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Predicting Freshman Grades and Counselors' Prediction Style
Authors:Donivan J Watley
Abstract:This study attempted to assess 2 questions: (1) What cognitive procedures, as suggested by the use of case data, do counselors use to arrive at a specific prediction? (2) Are the cognitive procedures used by counselors related to actual predictive accuracy? The predicted criterion was freshman grades. 66 counselors were classified into 4 groups on the basis of their typical styles of using case data to predict this criterion. The results showed that counselors varied markedly in their approach to this task. Regardless of the amount of case data available, some counselors appeared consistently to apply a prediction equation of some kind to every case while others attempted to develop independent models for each case. However, the style with which data were used was not significantly related to predictive accuracy.
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