用不同外部表征方式集中呈现信息条件下的因果力判断

在分别用文字陈述、表格和图形三种外部表征方式集中呈现因果信息的条件下，用直接估计因果力大小的实验范式考察单一因果关系因果力估计的特点，检验概率对比模型，效力PC理论和pCI规则。让287名大学生被试估计不同化学药物影响动物基因变异的能力。结果发现，对单一因果关系因果力估计具有以下4个特点：⑴不对称性：在预防原因条件下的因果力估计较多符合效力PC理论，而在产生原因条件下的因果力估计一般符合概率对比模型；⑵文字陈述、表格和图形三种信息外部表征方式，不影响产生原因条件下的因果力估计，但影响预防原因条件下的因果力估计。在预防原因条件下，与文字陈述和表格表征相比，图形表征会促使更多被试按效力PC理论来做因果力估计；⑶没有被试使用pCI规则；⑷被试估计因果力所使用的规则存在明显的个体差异。

CAUSAL JUDGMENTS IN THE CONCENTRATIVE PRESENTATION OF INFORMATION WITH DIFFERENT EXTERNAL REPRESENTAIONS

An experiment was conducted to investigate human causal judgments in the concentrative presentation of information with the three different external representations and the paradigm of direct estimates of causal power, and to test the Power PC theory, Probabilistic Contrast Model, and pCI rule. The participants were 287 college students. It was found that judgments of causal power of single causal relationships had the four characteristics: (a) More judgments were in accord with the Power PC theory in preventive causes, but conversely most judgments were in accord with probabilistic contrast model in generative causes; (b) the representations of literal presentation, tables and graphs had no impact on the judgments of causal power in generative causes, but had the impact on that in preventive causes where more participants' judgments were in accord with the Power PC theory in the representation of graphs, compared with the representations of literal presentation and tables; (c) no participant used pCI rule; and (d) there were obvious individual differences in causal judgments.