Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice |
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Authors: | Gilberto Montibeller Haidee Gummer Daniele Tumidei |
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Institution: | 1. Operational Research Group, Department of Management, London School of Economics, London, UK;2. Kingston Business School, Kingston University, London, UK |
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Abstract: | The integrated use of scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an in-depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of scenario planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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Keywords: | scenario planning multi-criteria decision analysis strategic decision-making risk and uncertainty |
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