A Bayesian approach to mitigation of publication bias |
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Authors: | Maime Guan Joachim Vandekerckhove |
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Institution: | 1.University of California,Irvine,USA |
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Abstract: | The reliability of published research findings in psychology has been a topic of rising concern. Publication bias, or treating positive findings differently from negative findings, is a contributing factor to this “crisis of confidence,” in that it likely inflates the number of false-positive effects in the literature. We demonstrate a Bayesian model averaging approach that takes into account the possibility of publication bias and allows for a better estimate of true underlying effect size. Accounting for the possibility of bias leads to a more conservative interpretation of published studies as well as meta-analyses. We provide mathematical details of the method and examples. |
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