决策渐进调整过程的个案研究

许多以全面理性为基础的决策理论都倾向于把决策者对事物的认识作为决策的前提,认为一项好的决策只有在充分认识了事物的情况下才是可能的.许多心理学的研究发现,这种假设并不符合实际的情况.本研究以"行动理性"为出发点,运用个案分析技术,深入剖析了某电子原件厂历时半年的生产经营决策过程,揭示了决策在执行的过程中逐步调整和发展的特征.研究发现,作为决策的前提的认识,实际上是在该决策的执行过程中不断发展和完善的.决策者是在决策执行结果的评价基础之上,逐步深入地认识决策的关键问题,包括(1)决策所要解决的问题,(2)决策方案会产生什么样的结果,(3)决策执行方法是否适当,(4)决策应采取什么样的程序和方法,(5)决策的形势和条件如何.正是这些"后见",使决策者能够逐步调整决策,实现决策的"渐进发展".这种行动决策的思想,把决策者的认识、决策和决策执行三者的关系看做一种循环发展的过程.

A Longitudinal Study on the Incremental Adaptation in Organizational Decision Making Process

Decision\|making is the core of managerial work and understanding of its process is fundamental to both development of decision theory and improvement of management practice.Since decision making was described traditionally as rationally dominated process,implementation of decision was thus looked upon as a passive procedure of following predetermined decisions.In this research,we took the nature of decision making as a kind of goal\|directed activity instead of mere intellectual contemplation.Case analysis method was used to explore the incremental adjustment process of decision making.The result indicated that knowledge,which was supposed to be a prerequisite for decisions,was submitted to successive refinement in the process of the decision implementation.Particularly,evaluations of outcomes of implementation provided management with better understandings of 1) unexpected outcomes of decisions (mean\|end recognition),2) new problems for further sophisticated considerations (problem recognition),3) shortcomings in decision implementation (implementation recognition),4) procedures of decision making (recognition of decision method),and 5) constraints of decision situation (recognition of situation).A model of decision making in action was tentatively proposed on the base of the findings.