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Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement: a research program for cognitive psychology |
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| Authors: | Daniel Osherson Eldar Shafir Edward E. Smith |
| Affiliation: | a IDIAP, C.P. 609, CH-1920 Martigny, Valais, Switzerland b Department of Psychology, Green Hall, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-1010, USA c Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, 330 Packard Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48104, USA |
| Abstract: | Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it. |
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