A randomised Monty Hall experiment: The positive effect of conditional frequency feedback |
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Authors: | Lore Saenen Wim Van Dooren Patrick Onghena |
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Institution: | 1. Methodology of Educational Sciences Research Group, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgiumlore.saenen@ppw.kuleuven.be;3. Centre for Instructional Psychology and Technology, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium;4. Methodology of Educational Sciences Research Group, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium |
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Abstract: | The Monty Hall dilemma (MHD) is a notorious probability problem with a counterintuitive solution. There is a strong tendency to stay with the initial choice, despite the fact that switching doubles the probability of winning. The current randomised experiment investigates whether feedback in a series of trials improves behavioural performance on the MHD and increases the level of understanding of the problem. Feedback was either conditional or non-conditional, and was given either in frequency format or in percentage format. Results show that people learn to switch most when receiving conditional feedback in frequency format. However, problem understanding does not improve as a consequence of receiving feedback. Our study confirms the dissociation between behavioural performance on the MHD, on one hand, and actual understanding of the MHD, on the other. We discuss how this dissociation can be understood. |
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Keywords: | Monty Hall dilemma Probability Conditional feedback Frequencies Decision-making |
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