Probability estimates of social events as related to values

Abstract.— Differences in estimates of probabilities that certain social events would happen after given alternatives of (political) actions were analysed for individuals with different untrained values about those events. Subjects with extremely positive or extremely negative values had 0.05-0.20 higher probability estimates than subjects with no opinion. Subjects who earlier in the experiment had attached neutral or extreme values to the events showed a tendency to estimate the probabilities higher than those subjects who had had no such activity preceeding the estimation. Awareness of probability estimates did not seem to affect values.