事后聪明式偏差的理论模型及影响因素

事后聪明式偏差是指人们在得知事件结果后，会因记忆扭曲、对自身预测能力或事件发生必然性的需要的诱发，而表现出过高估计自己在事前预测能力的现象。许多研究表明，该偏差普遍存在于实验和真实情境中，很难通过实施策略而减小。该现象的理论模型主要基于认知过程和社会性动机，影响因素有研究方法、个人特质、能力变量、年龄因素、个人相关度和事件效价，在未来研究中应注重对理论的整合以及校正策略在应用中的探索

Theories and Influential Factors of Hindsight Bias

Hindsight bias refers to people’s overestimation of their predictability on the outcome of previous events after they have known the results. Research suggested that this may due to the distortion of previous memory, induced impressions of predictability or the impressions of necessity. Many studies suggested that the bias was widely observed in both labs and real situations, and was difficult to be debiased by using strategies. Relevant theoretical models were mainly based on cognitive processes and social motives, and many factors such as research methods, personal traits, ability variables, personal-relevance and event valence were found influential. Future studies should focus on the integration of various theories, and the exploration of debiasing strategies in application