长期型罪犯的需要特征及行为预测

本文研究了长期型罪犯的心理需要特征及行为预测模型。采用爱德华个人偏好问卷（EPPS），分别对191名长期型罪犯、194名正常人进行了测试。测试结果表明，EPPS的16个指标的考验值均达到非常显著的水平。其中8种需要反映出长期型罪犯不同于正常人的行为特点。在此基础上，用逐步回归方法建立了长期型罪犯心理需要的数学模型，预测其行为的变化和发展，为劳教及劳改工作者管理和教育长期型罪犯提供尝试性的预测方法。

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PSYCHOLOGICAL NEEDS OF CRIMINALS IN CUSTODYAND THE PREDICTION OF THEIR BEHAVIOURS

The article studies the psychological need features and behavious patterns criminals in custody. 191crimials and 194 citizens were tested by means of theEdwards Personal Preference Schedule (EPPS). Theresults showed that the special psychological needswere different between the criminals and citizens. Thetest co-efficients of 16 targets of EPPS were obvious.The criminals had 8 needs which revealed behaviouspatterns. A mathematics pattern that estimates pshcyological needs was established with multi -item stepwise regression method, which can evaluate the behavious change and development of criminals. Thepattern will provide officials in charge of labor reformwith a trial prediction mehtod.