Nonlinear judgment analysis: Comparing policy use by those who draft and those who coach

ObjectivesIn the NBA draft, talent potential is assessed by a group of evaluators (e.g., coaches, personnel directors, general managers) who determine the order in which players are drafted, and talent actualization is assessed by a second group of evaluators (coaches) who determine how much time players spend on the court. This study examines the cue use by these two groups and considers the utility of a nonlinear assessment technique.MethodThe implicit policies used by talent evaluators were examined using both linear regression and nonlinear backpropagation.ResultsAlthough both groups heavily value scoring, discrepancies were observed among the other characteristics. The use of a nonlinear technique produced better cross-validated fits than linear regression, but the rank ordering of cue importance produced by both models was generally similar.ConclusionsPlayers favored by draft personnel primarily become scorers whereas coaches value a wider range of skills. The nonlinear approach better captured the policies of groups of evaluators and should be used to assess potential incongruities among judges of talent.