风险条件下的跨期选择

跨期选择是指对发生在未来不同时间点上的结果做出权衡的决策过程。由于大部分跨期选择的情景都处于某种风险之中, 把风险变量纳入跨期选择的研究中则至为关键。针对以往研究在研究范围、理论构建、现实意义等诸方面的不足, 本研究拟采用实验室实验与纸笔测验相结合的方法, 深入揭示高、中、低三种概率水平下风险对跨期选择的影响特征, 探索其发生的机制、各类经典效应的大小。在此基础上, 根据全国不同地区的大样本调查结果, 了解各地区风险条件下跨期选择的差异及其与本地宏观经济指标(如, 消费者物价指数)的关联, 进而探讨研究的现实意义。本研究期望对风险条件下的跨期选择做出系统、全面的科学探索, 并为国家相关部门制定政策提供有价值的参考。

The Intertemporal Choice Under Risk: A Research Proposal

Intertemporal choice refers to a choice between alternatives that differ in size and time to delivery. In view of the fact that situations are uncertain in most real-world decisions,a general theoretical model of intertemporal choice must deal with situations involving risk. Beyond the weakness of the previous theoretical models,we will use both the lab method and paper-pencil test to investigate the impact of the probability level on intertemporal choices. Furthermore,the query technique will allow us to e...