概率判断中的合取谬误

概率判断中的合取谬误是指违反事件发生概率的合取规则而认为包含多个独立事件的复合事件的发生可能性大于其中某些事件的发生可能性的一种概率判断偏差现象。合取谬误的界定存在一定争议, 相关的解释机制有因果模型理论、确认理论、惊奇理论等, 影响合取谬误的因素有频率效应、训练效应以及个体差异等等。未来研究应联系逆转合取谬误的心理机制来完善已有的理论, 同时注意应用研究以及其非理性的探讨。

Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment

The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment refers to a phenomenon of probability judgment bias, which results from violating the conjunction rules of event occurrence probability and regarding that the occurrence probability of conjunction event that contains multiple independent events is greater than that of conjunct events in it. The definition standard of conjunction fallacy is incongruent. The relevant mental mechanism includes causal model theory, confirmation theory and surprise theory and so on, and many factors affect conjunction fallacy, like frequency effect, training effect, individual differences, and many others. Studies in the future should combine the mental mechanism of inverse conjunction fallacy to perfect the existing explanatory theory, meanwhile, the conjunction fallacy in application and its irrationality should be noticed.