The puzzle of the hats |
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Authors: | Luc Bovens and Wlodek Rabinowicz |
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Institution: | (1) Ceremade, Universit? Paris-Dauphine, Paris, France; |
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Abstract: | The Puzzle of the Hats is a betting arrangement which seems to show that a Dutch book can be made against a group of rational players with common
priors who act in the common interest and have full trust in the other players’ rationality. But we show that appearances
are misleading—no such Dutch book can be made. There are four morals. First, what can be learned from the puzzle is that there
is a class of situations in which credences and betting rates diverge. Second, there is an analogy between ways of dealing
with situations of this kind and different policies for sequential choice. Third, there is an analogy with strategic voting,
showing that the common interest is not always served by expressing how things seem to you in social decision-making. And
fourth, our analysis of the Puzzle of the Hats casts light on a recent controversy about the Dutch book argument for the Sleeping Beauty. |
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