Speed reductions and judgments of travel time loss: Biases and debiasing |
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| Institution: | 1. Risk Analysis, Social and Decision Research Unit, Department of Psychology, Stockholm University, Sweden and Decision Research, Oregon, USA;2. Department of Psychology, Leiden University, The Netherlands;1. Department of Training and Application, Ankara Nuclear Research and Training Center, Turkish Atomic Energy Authority, TR-06100, Beşevler, Turkey;2. Vocational School of Health Services, Ankara University, TR-06290, Kecioren-Ankara, Turkey;3. Department of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Faculty of Pharmacy, Ankara University, TR-06100, Beşevler, Turkey;4. Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, Ankara University, TR-06100, Beşevler, Turkey;5. Department of Physics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ankara University, TR-06100, Beşevler, Turkey;1. State Key Laboratory of High Performance Complex Manufacturing, School of Mechanical and Electronical Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, 410083, China;2. Electronical Engineering, Nanchang University, Nanchang, China;1. Road Safety Research Center, Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport, No. 8 Xitucheng Road, HaiDian District, Beijing 100088, China;2. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, 34-40 University Road, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom |
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| Abstract: | Priority decisions concerning maintenance or reconstruction of roads are made with the aim of road improvements with as little traffic disturbance and time loss as possible. However, it cannot be avoided that speed will be reduced and travel time increased during the time of construction. The present study shows how intuitive judgments of travel time losses are biased in a way similar to the times saving bias (Svenson, 2008), but not perfectly corresponding to that bias. This means that when speed is decreased from a slow speed <50 km/h, the time loss is underestimated and when speed is decreased from a high speed >80 km/h it is overestimated. Also, drivers, politicians and policy makers who do not make exact calculations are likely victims of the time loss bias. The time loss bias was weakened but not eliminated by a debiasing instruction including mathematical computations of travel times. When driving speed restrictions are implemented, in particular on fast motorways, it is necessary to consider and counteract the time loss bias and inform the public. This can be done, for example, in communications about travel time facts, by information in driver training and by mounting temporary road signs informing about the average travel time prolongation due to a road work. |
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| Keywords: | Driving Traffic planning Travel time Speed limits Time loss Judgments Debiasing |
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