The relationship between the probability assessor and the outcomes of an event as a determiner of subjective probability

Two experiments were conducted in which 58 subjects assessed the probability of occurrence of positive and negative events. Two types of probabilities were assessed. The first was the probability that an event would occur, influencing the assessor him/herself (SPE). The second was the probability that the same event would occur to someone else, not influencing the assessor (SNPE). Six patterns of assessments were observed. Most of the subjects assessed SPE to be higher than SNPE for positive events and SNPE to be higher than SPE for negative events. In the first experiment SNPE was assessed in regard to someone very close and similar to the assessor while in the second experiment SNPE was assessed in regard to a less-defined “else”. In the latter case the differences between SPE and SNPE were more prominent than in the first. The explanation was given in terms of motivational factors and the availability heuristic.