Is there an ‘end of history illusion’ for life satisfaction? Evidence from a three-wave longitudinal study

According to the ‘end of history illusion’ (EOHI) individuals underestimate the amount of future change they will experience. Using results from a three-wave longitudinal study of American adults (N = 2390, mean age = 55.31 years, 56% female), we examined ratings of recollected past (10 years prior), current, and anticipated future (10 years later) life satisfaction at Wave 2, as well as current life satisfaction at Wave 1 (nine years earlier) and at Wave 3 (nine years later). Younger adults typically underestimated their past and overestimate their future LS, whereas older adults tended to underestimate their future LS. Contrary to the EOHI, most individuals either were accurate or anticipated too much change into the future, rather than too little.