Psychosocial and organic variables as predictors of lung cancer,cardiac infarct and apoplexy: Some differential predictors

In a longitudinal study started in 1965 in Crvenka (Yugoslavia), a number of psychosocial and organic variables were measured in 1353 Ss and related to the incidence of cancer, circulatory and other diseases in the subsequent 10-yr period by multivariate statistical methods. The present article reports on an attempt at differential prediction of lung cancer and cardiac infarct or apoplexy, which were selected because smoking is usually held to be a common risk factor for them. In a discriminant analysis (minimizing the overall classification error), 86–87% of the lung cancer and infarct/apoplexy cases could be predicted correctly, as well as 97% of the cases showing neither of the diseases. Some psychosocial variables like rationality and anti-emotionality or long-lasting hopelessness were about as relevant as the strongest organic predictors like level and variability of blood cholesterol.