ENLISTED PERSONNEL SELECTION FOR THE U. S. NAVY1

Recently, over 33% of the new male enlistees were prematurely separated from the Navy (i.e., prior to the expiration of active duty obligation). The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a new screening tool, designed to estimate an applicant's chances of completing the first two years of service. Essentially all nonprior service males enlisting during 1973 were included in the study (N = 68,616). Predictors used were: (1) years school completed, (2) mental group, based upon aptitude level, (3) age, and (4) number of dependents. The dichotomous criterion was survival (72%) vs. loss (28%), after a median two years of service. The model developed on the total sample evidenced a multiple point-biserial validity of .31. Double cross-validation evidence showed that the model will produce reasonably accurate and stable predictions. Management-oriented information was prepared to illustrate the various consequences of employing alternative cutting scores. This permitted examination of the tradeoffs involved in raising or lowering standards in the light of the current supply and demand picture for nonprior service enlisted male applicants.