Evaluating a Complex and Uncertain Future

Social systems are emergent complex systems that are prone to uncertainty and change. Complexity and uncertainty increase the difficulty of evaluating for sustainability. However, backcasting from visions of sustainability using indicators that are positively correlated to principles of sustainability allows for congruence and complexity in achieving the vision. This article presents a model of how this can be done using Causal Layered Analysis and the Ecological Framework. Reiterating the evaluation and visioning process allows for indicators to accommodate change while remaining relevant to sustainability principles.