Ginzberg's theory of occupational choice: A reanalysis of increasing realism

A causal model of indicators was derived from Ginzberg, Ginsburg, Axelrad, and Herma's developmental framework of occupational choice. This theoretical perspective suggests that high school age adolescents' “fantasy” choices are diverted into more “realistic” anticipations mainly through awareness of the work world and work roles and perceived “reality factors” (perceived goal-blocks) which function to inhibit the maintenance of such “fantasy” desires. Panel data from a three-state sample of nonmetropolitan Southern males interviewed while in the tenth-grade in 1966 and reinterviewed in 1968 were examined using path analytic models. Findings suggest that “realistic” choices (expectations) demonstrate an increasing dissociation from earlier “fantasy” choices (aspirations) primarily through the formation of perceived “reality factors.” An alternative model which incorporates race as a predetermined variable seems to indicate that racial differences in occupational knowledge affect the formation of perceived “reality factors” which are significant mediators of social origin for high school seniors' occupational expectations. While race affects occupational knowledge directly, most of the causal effects of race on 1968 expectations are actually due to the association of race with SES. Areas of other research are specified.