| Abstract: | The paper describes a successful application of Bayesian decision analysis to the operation of the Lake Kariba hydropower system. This management problem is complicated by the high uncertainty of the inflow process, multiple and conflicting objectives and the influence of time on some of the parameters in the management task. Inflows to the reservoir are forecast through dynamic linear models. Managerial preferences are modelled through a multiattribute utility function. Since the solution of the exact model is computationally too demanding, a heuristic method is applied to find a feasible control strategy. A comparison with results obtained by methods used previously demonstrates the superiority of the methodology presented here. |
