Psychosocial predictors of the short-term course and outcome of major depression: a longitudinal study of a nonclinical sample with recent-onset episodes

Three variables have been hypothesized to play important roles in prolonging the course of depressive episodes: a ruminative response style, significant interpersonal relationships, and childhood adversity. The authors examined whether these variables predicted the short-term course of major depressive disorder (MDD). Participants (n = 84) were college students with a recent-onset major depressive episode. Assessments included several interview and self-report measures, and data on interpersonal relationships were obtained from close confidants. Follow-up interviews were conducted 6 months later. After controlling for baseline severity, harsh discipline in childhood significantly predicted mean level of depression across the follow-up and level of depression at follow-up. Harsh discipline was also significantly associated with relapse but not with recovery. After controlling for baseline severity, rumination and the interpersonal variables did not predict the outcome of MDD.