An approach to the problem of differential prediction

A procedure for maximizing selective efficiency is developed for application to situations in which it is desired to select from a single group of applicants for several possible assignments. The problem of comparable units for the several criteria whose values must be compared to each other for differential assignment purposes is discussed. It is demonstrated that, assuming linear regressions, maximal selection is obtained if individuals in any given assignment are differentiated from those rejected according to critical rejection scores on the multiple weighted sum of the predictors and from another possible assignment by critical difference scores which are merely the differences between the two critical rejection scores. Since the relationships just indicated give no way of determining the magnitude of the critical scores required to select the required number of persons for each assignment, a successive approximation procedure for accomplishing this purpose has been devised and a computational example is worked out.The opinions expressed are those of the author and are not to be construed as official or as those of the War Department.