A multilevel model of educational expectations of secondary school students in the United States

Using the Educational Longitudinal Survey of 2002, we investigate variation in factors that contribute to Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White students’ educational expectations. Separate multilevel models demonstrate group variation in student and school-level influences. Academic and school factors explained the most variation in White students’ expectations. School characteristics were least predictive of Black student expectations. For Hispanic students, the overall influence of family socioeconomic status (SES) was explained by school level SES. These results support research on student-level predictors of expectations and present new evidence of school-level predictors. The impact of academic track perceptions on expectations is established, as are the effects of certain experiences and school contexts, especially sports participation and Catholic/private school attendance. A model comparing all four groups supported the separate group models and also revealed that student-level factors have a weaker influence on Asians and high crime neighborhoods inflate the expectations of Hispanics but not similarly situated Black students.